| Steve "St. Angelo" SRSRocco
One particular PM analyst, an
oddly-named Steve "St. Angelo" SRSRocco, seems to make some of the
most ineffective predictions in recent years, stubbornly sticking
with his premise that physical demand (coin sales etc.) has some
effect on the paper-denominated price. Like a dog with a bone, he
just won't give up on this theory no matter how wrong he is proven
to be - year after year. He also frequently cherry-picks data to
support his continued expectation of a price rise. You can't use
supply/demand data to produce a viable result when you don't know
how big SUPPLY can get! (ex. COMEX has gone from 124:1 to over 500:1
in 3.5 years. How can anyone know if it won't rise to 600:1? or
10,000:1?) 'Demand', in this case, becomes inconsequential.
Hence, a community of failed predictions from the likes of Mr.
Gold (Jim Sinclair) "Gold will never go below $1500" or
Mr. Silver David Morgan "Silver will never go below $30"
who continue to use irrelevant data. How many times do these
analysts have to be wrong before they change the premise on which
they base their prognostications? They blame 'manipulation' but
never take it into account when making their videos, writing
newsletters or being interviewed. They just keep stating an imminent
price rise. In fact, they decidedly ignore their, previous, costly
errors. It's not an occasional mistake - it's pathological in
Rocco's case.
One example of why I say 'cherry
pick' was this January 2nd, 2014 article Rocco wrote:
The Historic Gold-Oil Ratio Forecasts A
Much Higher Price For Gold! - the price of Brent crude at
the time was $110/brl BUT with the dramatic price drop of Oil - now
$35ish/brl (that he also seemed clueless to predict) where is the
article that says The Historic Gold-Oil
Ratio Forecasts A Much LOWER Price For Gold? I guess it
didn't support his thesis.
Let's look at some of Rocco's
articles over the past 3+ years. The article titles are in bold and
my, occasionally smartass, comments in italics.
June 6, 2013 -
Silver Investment Demand: The Ticking Time
Bomb - it must be a calendar-based fuse as the price
has only declined, in that time, from $22.40 to $14.99 (April 2016).
A few days before - May 29, 2013 Gold
& Silver Maple Leaf Sales Increase in a Big Way - Uh
Huh, but this obviously has nothing to do with the price unless coin
sales make the price decrease over time. Hey there's an idea
- physical demand puts pressure on the paper-denominated price!
NOTE: "In our current
dollar gold market, the less (physical) gold is supplied, the more
it pressures the (paper) price down! Players must create and sell
not just more contracts to cover expiring ones, but also sell enough
paper to force the price down further. In a market that's becoming
shorter of physical gold, this is the only way they can add equity
to cover rollover positions. "FOA - The Gold Trail, Feb 23, 2000
Indian Silver Imports on Pace for New
Record in 2013 - and this too seems to have made the
price... drop.
June 15, 2013 - Silver Price to Rise as Top
Miner’s Production Evaporates - $22 to $15 almost 3 years
later.
July 16, 2013 - U.S. Mint Shows It Sold 27
Million Silver Eagles in July - meaningless.
August 1, 2013 How Falsified U.S. GDP Data
will Lead to Much Higher Precious Metal Prices
July 29, 2013 - The Inevitable Rise in
Silver, It’s the Energy Cost - I can appreciate long
terms calls so we'll let this slide but so far he's be waaay wrong.
July 25, 2013 - SILVER: The King of Future
Investment Gains - hmmmmm - it was $20.50 at that
time. Lost 25% in under 3 years.
August 29, 2013 - Precious Metals Will Rise
As the Economic Recovery Disintegrates - no
particularly ground-breaking news but the inference of the article
is in an imminent collapse.
August 27, 2013 - Canadian Maple Leaf Sales
Beat All Records - ho hum.
August 21, 2013 - SILVER EAGLES SALES:
Signaling Much Higher Price Gains Ahead - no this is
simply untrue - it is, instead, signaling that you have no idea what
you are talking about.
September 9, 2013 - The Energy Factor to
Push Gold to New Highs - talk about no vision...
October 4, 2013 - The Calm Before The
Precious Metals Storm - the storm that decreased the
prices? $21.70 t0 $15...
September 18, 2013 - 500 Silver Eagles To
Purchase A Home in the Future - perhaps this is
predicting a decline in real estate? $8900.00 USD a home? what is
it? a fancy tent? maybe he was referring to Detroit.
November 4, 2013 - Coming of QE5 & Much
Higher Precious Metals Prices At the time the price of
Silver was $22.00 / Gold $1320... it's only gone down.
October 21, 2013 -Silver To Hit New Highs
Despite Bearish Forecasts - looks like the bearish
forecasts were right this time
October 15, 2013 -The Key Factor To Drive
Gold & Silver To Extreme Values - as you seem to be
the contrary indicator would it being you calling a price decline?
November 13, 2013 - SILVER BEARS: You Have
Been Warned - better warn them again Rocco - I don't
think they heard they were too busy counting their profits.
December 27, 2013 - Silver To Hit New Highs
As The Quality Of Analysis Sinks To New Lows - well,
some analysts...
December 22, 2013 - Silver Price To Head
Higher As Cost of Production Forms A Base - sigh -
still forming that base, Rocco?
January 13, 2014 - The Coming Silver Game
Changer - waiting on pins and needles - can't you give
some hints? What is it? Record Coin sales, again?
January 5, 2014 - Where Is The Price Of
Silver Headed In 2014? Silver was $21.50 at the writing
of the article where Rocco said: "Whatever
the price movement, I doubt we will see much lower prices"
- I guess that begs the questions what do you mean by 'much'?
February 28, 2014 - Silver Will Be The King
Precious Metal Performer - since penned the SGR
(Silver-Gold Ratio) has only, relentlessly, risen...
May 13, 2014 - U.S. Mint Sells More Silver
Eagles In A Week Than Gold Eagles Over Past Three Years -
I have no idea what value this information is.
July 2, 2014 THE COMING TWO-STAGE RALLY IN
SILVER -one, or both, of the stages seemed to have
stalled.
July 28, 2014 - Three Signals For A Huge
Silver Spike In 2014 - was $21.50 at the time -
nothing but a decline from that level since.
August 8, 2014 - 2014 Official Coin Sales:
Silver The Big Winner - win what? Another 20% decline
in price?
September 16, 2014 - The Silver Sentiment
Cycle — Turnaround Coming? - no, more failed
predictions coming
September 29, 2014 - Record September Gold
Eagle Sales… A Big Price Move Coming? - years of
writing about huge coin sales with the price dropping but he is
nothing if not consistent.
May 27, 2015 - Something BIG Is About To
Happen To Silver - Big?
July 6, 2015 - Has The Global Run On Silver
Begun? Shortages On The Horizon? - no, Mr. Roccco, on
the horizon are your continued stubborn predictions...
Rocco, physical buying (India, JP
Morgan, whoever) won't make the paper-price go up... it will,
potentially, only make it scarce to buy in extremis. As the paper
demand increases - it only increases the ratio of paper-to-physical
thereby diluting the paper value - which under true supply\demand
should go down. When western investors buy gold - they buy
paper gold - and so there is more pressure on paper gold the more in
forces the paper-denominated price lower. Silver below $10 and gold
below $500... and this should be encouraging to the gold holders as
it announces the paper market is near breaking and you probably
won't find any physical metals at those prices. It would probably
indicate that a rest/revaluation is forthcoming if not imminent.
NOTE: I have nothing against Mr.
St. Angelo - he seemed reasonably civilized in online discussions
(although wanting to lecture more than learn), but when I simply
reminded him of his June 19th, 2015 statement:
“By the end of this year, or let’s say by September/October, I
think it’s a perfect scenario for things to get out of hand. If
people don’t buy silver right now, I really don’t think they’re
going to be able to find it in the future.”
He, then, banned me from his
Forum.?!?
If you have made one or two bad
calls - that's one thing but Steve (Rocco) has made a database full
and I think he should own up to them and be accountable explaining
how and why his predictions are so far from reality of what is/has
transpired. I have my own idea- if you start from a failed premise
(his is supply/demand) and you refuse to shift gears - well,
paraphrasing Einstein "Insanity is making the exact same failed
predictions over and over again and expecting different results."
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