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Steve "St. Angelo" SRSRocco

One particular PM analyst, an oddly-named Steve "St. Angelo" SRSRocco, seems to make some of the most ineffective predictions in recent years, stubbornly sticking with his premise that physical demand (coin sales etc.) has some effect on the paper-denominated price. Like a dog with a bone, he just won't give up on this theory no matter how wrong he is proven to be - year after year. He also frequently cherry-picks data to support his continued expectation of a price rise. You can't use supply/demand data to produce a viable result when you don't know how big SUPPLY can get! (ex. COMEX has gone from 124:1 to over 500:1 in 3.5 years. How can anyone know if it won't rise to 600:1? or 10,000:1?) 'Demand', in this case, becomes inconsequential. Hence, a community of failed predictions from the likes of Mr. Gold (Jim Sinclair) "Gold will never go below $1500" or Mr. Silver David Morgan "Silver will never go below $30" who continue to use irrelevant data. How many times do these analysts have to be wrong before they change the premise on which they base their prognostications? They blame 'manipulation' but never take it into account when making their videos, writing newsletters or being interviewed. They just keep stating an imminent price rise. In fact, they decidedly ignore their, previous, costly errors. It's not an occasional mistake - it's pathological in Rocco's case.

One example of why I say 'cherry pick' was this January 2nd, 2014 article Rocco wrote: The Historic Gold-Oil Ratio Forecasts A Much Higher Price For Gold! - the price of Brent crude at the time was $110/brl BUT with the dramatic price drop of Oil - now $35ish/brl (that he also seemed clueless to predict) where is the article that says The Historic Gold-Oil Ratio Forecasts A Much LOWER Price For Gold? I guess it didn't support his thesis.

Let's look at some of Rocco's articles over the past 3+ years. The article titles are in bold and my, occasionally smartass, comments in italics.

June 6, 2013 - Silver Investment Demand: The Ticking Time Bomb - it must be a calendar-based fuse as the price has only declined, in that time, from $22.40 to $14.99 (April 2016).

A  few days before - May 29, 2013 Gold & Silver Maple Leaf Sales Increase in a Big Way - Uh Huh, but this obviously has nothing to do with the price unless coin sales make the price decrease over time. Hey there's an idea - physical demand puts pressure on the paper-denominated price!

NOTE: "In our current dollar gold market, the less (physical) gold is supplied, the more it pressures the (paper) price down! Players must create and sell not just more contracts to cover expiring ones, but also sell enough paper to force the price down further. In a market that's becoming shorter of physical gold, this is the only way they can add equity to cover rollover positions. "FOA - The Gold Trail, Feb 23, 2000

Indian Silver Imports on Pace for New Record in 2013 - and this too seems to have made the price... drop.

June 15, 2013 - Silver Price to Rise as Top Minerís Production Evaporates - $22 to $15 almost 3 years later.

July 16, 2013 - U.S. Mint Shows It Sold 27 Million Silver Eagles in July - meaningless.

August 1, 2013 How Falsified U.S. GDP Data will Lead to Much Higher Precious Metal Prices

July 29, 2013 - The Inevitable Rise in Silver, Itís the Energy Cost - I can appreciate long terms calls so we'll let this slide but so far he's be waaay wrong.

July 25, 2013 - SILVER: The King of Future Investment Gains - hmmmmm - it was $20.50 at that time. Lost 25% in under 3 years.

August 29, 2013 - Precious Metals Will Rise As the Economic Recovery Disintegrates - no particularly ground-breaking news but the inference of the article is in an imminent collapse.

August 27, 2013 - Canadian Maple Leaf Sales Beat All Records - ho hum.

August 21, 2013 - SILVER EAGLES SALES: Signaling Much Higher Price Gains Ahead - no this is simply untrue - it is, instead, signaling that you have no idea what you are talking about

September 9, 2013 - The Energy Factor to Push Gold to New Highs - talk about no vision...

October 4, 2013 - The Calm Before The Precious Metals Storm - the storm that decreased the prices? $21.70 t0 $15...

September 18, 2013 - 500 Silver Eagles To Purchase A Home in the Future - perhaps this is predicting a decline in real estate? $8900.00 USD a home? what is it? a fancy tent? maybe he was referring to Detroit.

November 4, 2013 - Coming of QE5 & Much Higher Precious Metals Prices At the time the price of Silver was $22.00 / Gold $1320... it's only gone down.

October 21, 2013 -Silver To Hit New Highs Despite Bearish Forecasts - looks like the bearish forecasts were right this time

October 15, 2013 -The Key Factor To Drive Gold & Silver To Extreme Values - as you seem to be the contrary indicator would it being you calling a price decline?

November 13, 2013 - SILVER BEARS: You Have Been Warned - better warn them again Rocco - I don't think they heard they were too busy counting their profits.

December 27, 2013 - Silver To Hit New Highs As The Quality Of Analysis Sinks To New Lows - well, some analysts...

December 22, 2013 - Silver Price To Head Higher As Cost of Production Forms A Base - sigh - still forming that base, Rocco?

January 13, 2014 - The Coming Silver Game Changer - waiting on pins and needles - can't you give some hints? What is it? Record Coin sales, again?

January 5, 2014 - Where Is The Price Of Silver Headed In 2014? Silver was $21.50 at the writing of the article where Rocco said: "Whatever the price movement, I doubt we will see much lower prices" - I guess that begs the questions what do you mean by 'much'?

February 28, 2014 - Silver Will Be The King Precious Metal Performer - since penned the SGR (Silver-Gold Ratio) has only, relentlessly, risen...

May 13, 2014 - U.S. Mint Sells More Silver Eagles In A Week Than Gold Eagles Over Past Three Years - I have no idea what value this information is.

July 2, 2014 THE COMING TWO-STAGE RALLY IN SILVER -one, or both, of the stages seemed to have stalled.

July 28, 2014 - Three Signals For A Huge Silver Spike In 2014 - was $21.50 at the time - nothing but a decline from that level since.

August 8, 2014 - 2014 Official Coin Sales: Silver The Big Winner - win what? Another 20% decline in price?

September 16, 2014 - The Silver Sentiment Cycle ó Turnaround Coming? - no, more failed predictions coming

September 29, 2014 - Record September Gold Eagle SalesÖ A Big Price Move Coming? - years of writing about huge coin sales with the price dropping but he is nothing if not consistent.

May 27, 2015 - Something BIG Is About To Happen To Silver - Big?

July 6, 2015 - Has The Global Run On Silver Begun? Shortages On The Horizon? - no, Mr. Roccco, on the horizon are your continued stubborn predictions...

Rocco, physical buying (India, JP Morgan, whoever) won't make the paper-price go up... it will, potentially, only make it scarce to buy in extremis. As the paper demand increases - it only increases the ratio of paper-to-physical thereby diluting the paper value - which under true supply\demand should go down. When western investors buy gold - they buy paper gold - and so there is more pressure on paper gold the more in forces the paper-denominated price lower. Silver below $10 and gold below $500... and this should be encouraging to the gold holders as it announces the paper market is near breaking and you probably won't find any physical metals at those prices. It would probably indicate that a rest/revaluation is forthcoming if not imminent.

NOTE: I have nothing against Mr. St. Angelo - he seemed reasonably civilized in online discussions (although wanting to lecture more than learn), but when I simply reminded him of his June 19th, 2015 statement:
ďBy the end of this year, or letís say by September/October, I think itís a perfect scenario for things to get out of hand. If people donít buy silver right now, I really donít think theyíre going to be able to find it in the future

He, then, banned me from his Forum.?!?

If you have made one or two bad calls - that's one thing but Steve (Rocco) has made a database full and I think he should own up to them and be accountable explaining how and why his predictions are so far from reality of what is/has transpired. I have my own idea- if you start from a failed premise (his is supply/demand) and you refuse to shift gears - well, paraphrasing Einstein "Insanity is making the exact same failed predictions over and over again and expecting different results." .

 

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