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Martin Armstrong

 

Martin Armstrong, while not limited as a Precious Metals analyst, probably has one of the most colorful history's of anyone we have researched. He runs Armstrong Economics and became a millionaire at 15 by collecting coins. Mr. Armstrong is the former chairman of Princeton Economics International Ltd. He is best known for his economic predictions based on the Economic Confidence Model, which he developed. In September 1999, Armstrong faced prosecution by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for fraud. During the trial, Armstrong was imprisoned for over seven years for civil contempt of court, one of the longest-running cases of civil contempt in American legal history. In August 2006, Armstrong pleaded guilty to one count of conspiracy to commit fraud, and began a five-year sentence. Since his release he has had a voice in Economic activity and Bloomberg has referred to him as the "Felon Forecaster". We don't want to delve too much in his history, and lauded calls of decades past, but rather some of the more recent predictions that were flat-out wrong or have not come to fruition, yet. I find him vague in a Nostradamus-way and he flip-flops quite often. His calls are often about general, and large, economic events - so he puts himself on the line but these ambitious calls rarely come true.

 

Ex. In 2013 he predicted the DOW would double by 2015. At the time of the prediction the DOW was approximately 14,000 - today (April 2016), it is at/near its high of 17,737.00. In 2014 he stated that $100+ crude oil was here to stay. Crude is now trading below $40. So both of these are way off base. Let's take a look at some of his other miscue predictions:

 

Forecaster Martin Armstrong calling for start to a Sovereign debt crisis 2015.75 - he means the 3rd quarter of 2015 but it did not and has not transpired... yet.

 

August 25, 2011 - Martin Armstrong: Gold to Correct for 1-3 Quarters Before Resuming Uptrend - Gold was $1740 on that date, did correct lower - but never resumed, eclipsed or equaled that high 1-3 quarters after - nor has it 4.5 years later.

June 1, 2012 - Martin Armstrong: Are Commodities Preparing for a MAJOR RALLY? Armstrong is still looking for gold to explode to the upside into 2015 due to the Sovereign Debt Crisis - in this case the exact opposite happened - Commodities essentially collapsed for the, almost, 4 years following his statement.

November 2009 - "Martin Armstrong: Gold Headed To $5,000 And Beyond!" - 6 years later and no where near. That is not saying it can't or won't - just that without a date - it is a rather meaningless statement.

April 19th, 2013 - "We elected Weekly Bearish Reversals in both metals with gold closing at 1397.2 and 2304.1. Gold closed also just below the Weekly Break line 1398.6. This is warning that the FAILURE to exceed Friday's 4/19 high intraday, and a penetration of 1310, we are looking at a drop to $1158. Breach that, and we very well may see $907 in 2 weeks." No chance. Before he said this Gold had dropped $200 in the month of April, 2013 but it ended about $90 higher after he made the statement and it did not reach or breach $1158 although the following month it came close. Sub $1000 has not occurred even 3 years later.

Dec 2012 - "The metals will be taking off during 2013, Martin believes after the summer, going all the way to 2016. Major support is at 1570." - Gold started December 2012 at $1720 and closed 2013 at $1205 - $1570 was not support and June (Summer), it went below $1200.
 

Oct 2013 - Gold's going to drop below $1000 - and here is an example of his flip-flopping from the previous prediction. Sub $1000 has not occurred even 2.5 years later.

Aug 9, 2013 - "Martin Armstrong has come out with this shocker Dow 32,000 by 2015! - needless to say this wasn't even close to transpiring.

In 2013 - regarding the above DOW call: "Gold will be a beneficiary too, but in 2015." but later stated ''$650-910 price of Gold coming soon.'' - so this is an extreme flip-flop and neither came close to fruition.

September 14, 2014 - "Is Martin Armstrong Right on Sub-$1000 Gold?" - This seems to be a call that he is sticking with (see below), and I don't disagree, but the timing has not proven him correct to date.

More recently:
"The metals will bottom on the Bechmark targets. Today, gold has collapsed again back down to the 1208 level. All the screaming, hollering, kicking, biting, and name-calling will not prevent gold from meeting its fate. You have to realize there should be a retest of the 1980 high just under the $1,000 mark. There is a risk of testing the Yearly Bearish Reversal at $680. That would probably finish-off the gold promoters for quite a while. I think even a break of $1,000 will make them look rather stupid. But that is what you need at the finale.

 

So presently, different from most of our researched analysts - Martin Armstrong is not feeding fantasies of an imminent rise in the Precious Metals - which, perhaps should be commended as he would probably get more subscribers supporting and trending the Goldbug's hopes. But it seems his, supposed, prescient calls from decades past, have not been supported with any recent calls that he can put on his resume. He seems as clueless as the rest. By making many varied calls perhaps he believes that one would stick to embolden his reputation - like a broken watch is right twice a day. I think the absolute best you can say about him now is that his colorful calls are way too early - OR at worst he should simply be ignored for any short term predictions.

 

 

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