"All Roads Lead to Rome: The Collapse of the United States"

All civilizations succumb to some form of game-ending termination. The decline of the American Empire* may be brought to fruition via an un-guessable sequence of ordered bullet-point circumstances that will be debated for years to come. However, the eventual outcome will simply parallel events which have already occurred. These can be identified by a comparative chronology beside similar collapses. This finality can be proven, arithmetically, statistically and certainly historically by looking at how it mirrors specifics of what has previously transpired. I will try to focus my attention on the latter and steer clear of the astronomical numbers involved in regards to the U.S. debt as they can tend to make many 'blank-out' temporarily - myself included.

The fall of the Western Roman Empire is frequently used as the classic archetype barometer of economic, societal and military 'decay' and I will attempt to co-relate this to the U.S. through examples. There is also value in prognosticating events that can foreshadow what may transpire as America passes through dismantling stages. I should note that this is written being fully cognoscente of Albert Einstein' quote that "Problems cannot be solved at the same level of awareness that created them." It is my contention that the United States debt cannot be 'solved' and its path, including all viable potentials, will remain unsustainable as it continues to smothers itself in fiat paper illusionary solutions that only lengthen the timeframe of its eventual demise. The colloquialism is 'kicking the can down the road' and I believe that the longer it takes - the, exponentially, more devastating the conclusion will be.

INFLATION: It is well known that the Roman Emperors ordered dilution of their valuable gold and silver coins by melting them down - adding cheaper, base metals (hence the term 'debase') - then re-striking larger quantities of the same size and similar weight. You could take 10 coins and produce 100 or eventually 1000 coins - giving them only a representative, rather than intrinsic, value of the precious metal originally used. The Silver denarius, first minted in 211 BC, was put through this process so extensively that it had only a very small percentage of actual Silver left when it was finally replaced by the antoninianus. This activity causes price inflation which damages the standard of living as goods and services escalate faster than wages can follow suit. The corresponding model in the United States is, in some ways, far more complex. The modern U.S. blasted through coin debasement and went totally off the Gold standard 40 years ago and has had no backing for its currency ever since. The Federal Reserve cartel of bankers simply print money whenever it desires (ex. T. A. R. P., QE2, etc.) Every iteration or expansion of the money supply weakens the value of the existing currency - eventually causing consumer goods, most noticeable today in food and gasoline, to rise in price.

WHAT WE CAN EXPECT: Where this eventually leads is to legally enforced price controls although it has never proven to be more than an empty placebo - a stop-gap to temporarily pacify the masses. Where the Romans decreed that any baker charging more than 4 sestertii for a loaf of bread will be exiled beyond the city limits or even killed - all it did was to cause bakers to discontinue producing bread as they could no longer do so at a profit - or even to cover their own costs. The United States has not reached this stage but history tells us they certainly will enact 'price controls' in a blind attempt to curb the coming waves of inflation. This event will be the clearest warning sign apparent to us that the end is imminent. The U.S. is also replicating almost every nation's path who has suffered from hyperinflation. As inflation escalates to rapid heights the government has unrelenting pressure to sate public deficiencies by making more money available. It, only temporarily, can ease the situation, plus civil servants, social security and a number of other government sponsored programs requires bankrolling. In reality it only makes the problem worse. Eventually there is a loss of faith in the currency with individuals distancing themselves rapidly from its ownership. This pack behavior is largely driven by the fear that paper money will no longer be present in quantities large enough to purchase the necessities of life.  

MILITARY: As society sinks into relaxed levels of comfortable norms few bother questioning the expanding reach of their nation's militaristic might outside their own borders. Both Empires knew the need for expansion as it was that which caused them to reach their lofty level of affluence. The U.S. plunder of many Latin and South American country's resources is far less-documented than for Rome in its day, but the result for the conquering nation was the same. Rome had become very accustomed to having the military as a consistent revenue source. Eventually, though taxation was required to sustain it.  Expenses for the Military in Rome left shrinking resources for maintenance of the aqueducts and baths, as well as building new roads etc. The U.S. are in a situation where over half of what they bring in as income from taxpayers is used to sustain their bloated Military muscle. With demand for new resources - both Empires maintained expectation of further valuable conquests but eventually spreading themselves too thin to achieve those goals.

WHAT WE CAN EXPECT: The U.S. will not go down without a fight and continue its invasions in the Middle East despite the public decrying it (see the 70's and Vietnam.) Excuses of 'humanitarianism', 'bringing democracy'  or 'taking down dictators' will flood the mass media stages in an attempt to assuage the citizens from what it actually is - war profiteering obtained by companies like Halliburton and DynCorp International. History can confirm that there are no limits to the lies that will be exported to enforce these invasions with the ace-in-the-hole excuse being the overused canard; 'an ever present threat of terrorism!'. It seems likely that the U.S. will eventually invade, or attempt to invade, Iran after a succession of a number of other Middle East countries fall to their persistent assaults - both militarily and economically.

SOCIETAL and ECONOMIC: All societies have a form of class structure - whether implied or obvious. It has been said that "Capitalism cannot exist without 'slaves' ". Now, without a political debate - it is surely easy to make the case that the infrastructure of an advancing society relies almost exclusively upon those at the bottom of the economic pyramid (ex. those Egyptians who actually built the pyramids). You cannot create wealth without labor, Mr. Blankfein. Ancient Rome had Emperors (royalty), Senators, citizens/guards, apprentices and slaves. This distinction was reasonably transparent and firm in 300AD while the present U.S. divisions are transitory - helping establish the hopeful illusion that anyone can be 'promoted' or 'relegated' from their current class. The U.S. royalty would most accurately be regarded as 'the famous' and, like winning the lottery, everyone perceives to have their opportunity to advance beyond their station. This is promoted by popular television shows like 'American Idol'. More realistically and without the swings 'in' and 'out' of grace 'the famous' in America are more predictable as heavily inclusive of the wealthy and/or powerful. Without specific comparisons of Cicero, Coriolanus or Romulus Augustus to, say, Warren Buffett, Oprah Winfrey or Barack Obama - suffice to say each had/have a very large sphere of influence. With globalization American businesses have limited their version of production 'serfs' - farming out labor to China, India and whoever else would cost them the least amount. Almost the entire US Gross Domestic Product is dependant on consumer spending. To encourage spending, or rather discourage saving, the U.S. Fed have set interest rates at an unnaturally low level. With jobs farmed out to international locations and a domestic growing influx of people looking for work - high levels of unemployment disrupt obtaining credit and/or spending habits. Personal debt in the form of easy credit - Credit cards, student loans, mortgages (often multiple) have bled the average U.S. citizen dry of any wealth they were able to amass in their lives. The Romans extracted wealth with taxation - first to land owners and eventually spreading out to everyone who could potentially pay. The end result in Rome was that people actually stopped paying taxes, and many left the, once great, city as maintenance and commerce diminished.

WHAT WE CAN EXPECT: The United States has the trifecta of rampant inflation, higher unemployment and increased taxes to look forward to. Taxation may take many, less obvious, forms. One highly probable scenario example is retirement fund (401K, IRA) confiscation or imposed transfer to government securities. Signs have already become apparent of this triple threat of wealth destruction. This is despite the less-accurate government statistics that mask the gravity of the situation. Many Americans aware of the impending situation have already moved out of the country. The reality is that saving money by the lower and middle classes in the United States results in an 'unable' or 'unwilling' response. People today have many social media outlets to establish protest groups against economic hardship and converge assembly venues so I expect social unrest to organize swiftly in pockets throughout individual States. It is evident that the government is already preparing for this unrest with consistent limitations of human, civil and personal rights (see 'The Patriot Act' Bill.) The expectation is that the 'authorities' will be extremely busy and they don't need anything as frivolous as personal liberty standing in their way to control a disgruntled, jobless and starving population.

THE GERMAN CONNECTION:  Around 375-410 AD the Germanic tribes were a notable component to the decomposition of Roman Order and by the end of 476, the western Roman Empire was completely devastated due to invasions by 'Germany'. As we have inferred, the exact date of the 'downfall' is highly speculative as the process was gradual. Where the U.S. began acquiescing its production base in the 90's to more cost-efficient nations, modern Germany maintained theirs' - willing to accept short-term loss for, potentially, long-term gain. Angela Merkel isn't seeking to destroy the equivalent of American aqueducts but it is reported that they are bonding with China, Russia and certain Gulf states. Since U.S. sustenance seems directly related to their dollar remaining the reserve currency - a rumored replacement; the 'Nordic Euro' backed by Gold is reputedly supported by this new 'eastern alliance' and is definitely a threat to PetroDollar dominance - the debatable lynch-pin to U.S. economic survival.  

DIFFERENCES and TIMEFRAMES: Many investors see the decline of the United States as a lengthy process culminating after decades of persistent slowdown(s). Where the 'fall' of Rome questionably took as long as a couple of hundred years - everything moves much quicker in the modern world. The speed of commerce is micro-chip fast. In many cases information moves at such a rapid pace that individuals cannot fully absorb it. It herds and moves people like sheep. This is a factor that will, undoubtedly, hasten the United States downfall. Secrets are hard to keep with a flourishing Internet (right, Mr. Weiner?) However, the most important difference between the U.S. and Rome is D-E-B-T. Rome had none - essentially paying as they progressed. The U.S. debt comes from three major sources - personal, government (including supplied foreign credit) and banking. The bottom line of systemic default rests on many points including a corrupt fractional reserve banking system, 40-years of an un-backed currency and an unfathomable 1.14 quadrillion** derivatives market (over $190K for each and every person on the planet!) It is at such massive levels that most cannot comprehend the volume. Its impact will flood the system with uncertainty and its weight will crush all levels of the U.S. and global economy. When this will happen - we can only make educated guesses. The telltale events that used to occur yearly have moved to monthly, weekly and now daily. If the final nail in the coffin is hyperinflation, another symptom of the overburdening debt - it is estimated to occur between Fall 2011 and 2014. This is dependant solely on the actions of the U.S. Federal Reserve although it appears as though they are option-less in implementing an alternative route any further than just printing more money. Raising interest rates will exacerbate the government and banking debt to immediate default levels and I doubt it will transpire even as a last-ditch attempt. It is the definitive 'kill-switch' of this over-leveraged system. If it is a banking system collapses with a plummeting stock market - it could transpire on any normally evolving day. This could be precipitated by factors outside of this article including debt-strapped European countries (including the UK), climate catastrophes, public consensus withdrawal of currency confidence, Treasury Bond default, Municipal Bond default and/or other unforeseeable extent events. The quick-fix for each of these is to print more dollars and is the reason why deflation seems an unlikely scenario.  

WHAT TO DO: For decades Americans have refused to negotiate a less expansive way of life. The 40-year cyclical battle of paper versus hard currency is almost at a calendar-specific end. Our history has never seen an un-backed 'fiat' currency last more than 100 years but also never witnessed a world reserve currency collapse... or having it hyperinflate to total worthlessness. We suggest that it is prudent, nay essential, for individuals to prepare for a life with dramatic supply-chain shortages and a short-lived confusion as to what 'money' actually is. History shows its value again by helping us with this worrisome doubt. For over 6,000 years Gold and Silver have been money and will continue to do so - with a highly prominent role in the economics of any future global currencies. Your solution for wealth insurance and protection has, not surprisingly, been accumulating these two precious metals as voraciously as possible. History demands that you do so - it will directly relate to your survival in the ensuing decade.   

* 'Empire' is used as a more generic term not as meaning ruled by a single supreme authority.

** the term 'quadrillion' is NOT a typo. It is one thousand million million or 10 to the 15th power.

Gary Tooze